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26 Responses to “Which “BRIC” Country will become the most important player in the global economy?”
Edison, This million dollar question has confounded all risk analysis. China’s record is perfect, but politically it could implode due to social tensions. India has developed greatly, inspite of the government; so there is an Achilles heel that could act up suddenly. Russia has become a crony capitalist economy meaning the best minds will migrate out. Brazil has definitely taken many strides but its economic insularity means its expansion will be South America centric. If one factors in the mess EU is in & USA’s path down the socialist-crony capitalism path of Obama; then I would bet on India & Canada.
Certainly in the current scenario, China is the most important player in the global economy due to macroeconomic factors: low internal costs, high domestic consumption (high PIB), currency devalued against the dollar, high export capacity, etc..
China holds fifth of the world’s population which is the most continuous civilization in history, not in terms of political linearity but in terms of cultural continuity. Followed by India which is the world’s second oldest continuous civilization. The rapid economic growth and demographic of China and India are expected to give rise that would help drive the Bric’s economic development and expansion of global economy.
I still believe it is China. They are one of the largest consumers of commodities in the world and a key area for global GDP growth. In addition, they are using their large cash position to but strategic assets like oil and natural gas.
Most of the commentary I am reading shows that the long-term money is on India, providing they can 1) move qucickly from a nationalized to a privatized economy, 2) build up their infrastructure sufficiently, 3) remove trade barrier that prevent logistics giants such as Wal-Mart from moving in, 4) don’t get nuked by Pakistan. The population numbers favor Inida, with it soon outstripping China; it’s not a planned economy like China so that investment won’t be artificially hampered by politicians; it’s a democracy, so that citizens will have the potential for self-direction and self-betterment; it’s English cultural and historical background is more easily related to by Western European and US businessmen. Brazil would be a close second for many of the same reasons.
India will have the lasting economic influence. It is yet to be seen the outcome of the inevitable trade war/currency war between China and the US. If India can maintain growth it will be the economic power encompassing both manufacturing and technology innovation. In my most humble opinion…
Very interesting question. The answer is in the combination of the economical power of the country and its history and main believes of its people. Looking in the demographic future India and China will have more than 50% of the earth population. A strong economy, but lots of internal problems. Brasil has a good chance, but never shows any imperialistic ambitions in the past. In my opinion Russia shows the best combination of economical power and and the will to become a global player. But the answer might change drastically in 50yrs. Common agreement is that Europe and the US will fall back behind all of them.
I have some reserves with Brazil and India. Even though both have enormous resources, they also share cultural values which prioritize goals that are detrimental for them to take full advantage of those resources. China seems to be the exact opposite, and so was my choice.
I went for Brazil. Here’s why … China has a huge population, though most of them don’t participate in the “new economy” that the country is building. It also depends on a low wage base and I think we’re going to see that unravel over time; India has huge social and corruption issues to deal with and seems h*ll bent on putting every blocker possible in the way of becoming a truly great economic power; Russia appears to be big, but largely so because it is rebuilding what was already broken rather than creating new stuff. Brazil seems to have the desire to become a major player, and is making some of the right noises. To be honest though I think all four of them are at risk of a mighty implosion at some point in the next decade. They seem to be too dependent on “the west” for growth and I think we’re going to be putting up some barricades to help rebuild our own economies.
China - Ruthless execution & minimal public pressure does the trick with hardly any human rights. I was in Shanghai last year, they are big & they mean business. People come second; policy comes first.
China !! I would like to admire China for their cannabilization they done in their FX Reserves like one side they are selling Dollars and another side they are buying Gold . This will not only increase the valuations of Chinese Fx Reserves but also give them cushion against any fiat currency losses.
Sure, China is a massive economic machine. But in perspective … China’s economy, the second largest in the world, is only marginally larger than number 2 - Japan. I takes 1.3 billion Chinese to out-produce 180 million Japanese - and the Japanese economy has been shrinking for years! Two years ago, those 1.3 billion Chinese overtook Germany, then the number 3 economy, a nation of just 90 million people
There should be the fifth choice — BRIC matters not. Call me pessimistic, but when time comes all BRIC economies will sink like real bricks. Why? First, google “korean discount”. Second, BRIC are far bigger in area and population and more diverse than South Korea. The cultural impediments to innovation are simply insurmountable
“China !! I would like to admire China for their cannabilization they done in their FX Reserves like one side they are selling Dollars and another side they are buying Gold . This will not only increase the valuations of Chinese Fx Reserves but also give them cushion against any fiat currency losses.”
Seeing the opinions of others who may have better perspective than I do, is eye opening. I do see corruption as a problem, as it is everywhere. I feel that some people don’t trust the future and want to grab whatever they can get yet give no thought to the societal implications the immorality of corruption has on their people.